Forecasting Icing Occurrence

Graph of icing types against temperature

In making an icing forecast, one must evaluate observed and/or model-derived soundings to look for factors favorable for formation. These include:

Over the years, empirical forecast methods have been developed related to icing, and various forecast rules of thumb have been developed. These studies have found that icing is likely:

Icing tends to be less likely at temperatures below -15°C. For instance, for temperatures of -16 to -22°C with dewpoint depressions greater than 1°C, there is a 90% probability that icing will not occur, and for temperatures colder than -22°C, there is a 90% likelihood that icing will not occur.

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