Forecast Exercise: Question 1

To answer this question and others that follow, you first need to open the Interactive Skew-T with this sounding.

Based on the 1200 UTC May 3 sounding for Norman, Oklahoma (OUN), we will attempt to assess the potential for severe weather for the afternoon and evening period (around 0000 UTC).

Upon a general inspection of the sounding, what are the prospects of severe weather in the vicinity of OUN later in the day?
(Choose the best answer.)
Very favorable severe weather potential
Moderate potential for severe weather
Weak severe weather potential
No potential for severe weather

Correct. Very favorable potential exists for severe weather. The 1200 UTC sounding shows a 100 hPa deep moist layer near the surface, with a nearly dry adiabatic well-mixed layer above extending into the middle troposphere. There was moderate vertical wind shear with winds veering from south at the surface to west at 400 hPa. The unstable lapse rate combined with favorable vertical shear provide a general indication that conditions are favorable for the development of severe weather later in the day.
Incorrect. Note the 100 hPa deep moist layer near the surface, with a nearly dry adiabatic well-mixed layer above. In addition, there is moderate vertical wind shear with southerly surface winds veering to the west at 400 hPa.
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