Summary
We used a hypothetical Midwest U.S. morning sounding to assess the potential for hail in thunderstorms later in the day. Our initial analysis revealed that hail was a good possibility and this was confirmed by an empirically-derived forecast diagram. We also used the Fawbush-Miller method to forecast maximum hail size of about 1 inch. Since this is greater than the threshold hail diameter (3/4 inch) for severe thunderstorms, we would want to alert our aircraft operations of the potential for severe thunderstorms and damaging hail this afternoon.