Convective Forecasting Exercise

Sounding plotted on skew-T diagram

It is 1300 UTC at a Southern Plains location, and you need to assess the potential for convection later in the day. The 1200 UTC sounding is plotted below.

Skies are currently mostly clear over the forecast region, so you're expecting quite a bit of solar heating during the day. Surface winds are from the south-southeast and 63-66°F (~18°C) dewpoints are observed 50-100 miles southeast of your location.

TASK: Assess the convective potential and make a forecast for this afternoon.

Task 1

Assuming ample solar heating, what do you expect the maximum temperature to be?
Enter your answer in the text box below, then click Done.
(To assist with this question and others that follow, you can open the Interactive Skew-T with this Sounding).

Maximum Temperature = °C

Answer: 32°C.
The convective temperature is about 32°C = 88°F. When the convective temperature is reached, convective cumulus will form, which will limit further solar heating. So the surface temperature will not rise much after the onset of convection.
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