10/5/2022

Weather forecasts are an important driver of the European energy market. Decarbonization increases and changes the exposure of the energy system to climate and therefore markets are particularly sensitive on changes in the predicted predominant large-scale flow situation over the entire Europe. At the interface of medium and sub-seasonal range, such large-scale weather conditions can be depicted by so-called weather regimes. Weather regimes are quasi-stationary, persistent, and recurrent large-scale flow patterns that affect the weather conditions on the scale of a continent and typically last 5-20 days.

Besides the modulation of surface weather, weather regimes are also tied to periods of extreme weather such as heatwaves and droughts, cold spells, or anomalously windy conditions. Forecasts for weather regimes are thus of high interest for assessing the weather evolution a few weeks up to a month ahead, particularly in socio-economic sectors such as the energy industry, agriculture, or tourism.

In this talk, we will show some preliminary results of the joint project between the Large Scale and Predictability Group at KIT and AXPO Solutions, an energy trader company. This project aims at providing a systematic assessment of NWP model performance for weather regime forecasts in the European region on medium-range to sub-seasonal time scales, with a focus on regime onsets or transitions which modulate surface weather in a way that is particularly relevant to the European energy system.

Marisol Osman es investigadora del CONICET en el CIMA (en licencia postdoctoral) e investigadora postdoctoral en el Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. Completó su Licenciatura y Doctorado en Ciencias de la Atmósfera en el DCAO-FCEyN-UBA. Sus investigaciones se enfocan en la predictibilidad y el pronósticos en escalas subestacionales y estacionales y el desarrollo de herramientas de pronóstico para diferentes sectores socoeconómicos.